The Ordinary Way

On By Clayton Pitts

Ordinary betting

We’ll assume that the final average odds for the match will be 2.00. The pass rate will be 4 pluses out of 6, or 66.7%. If the pass rate is even, the route to $100,000 will look like this

  • 166.7 * 2.00 * 4 = 1 333
  • 222 * 8 = 1 778
  • 296 * 8 = 2 370
  • 395 * 8 = 3 161
  • 527 * 8 = 4 214
  • 702 * 8 = 5 619
  • 936 * 8 = 7 492
  • 1 249 * 8 = 9 989
  • 1 665 * 8 = 13 318
  • 2 220 * 8 = 17 758
  • 2 960 * 8 = 23 677
  • 3 946 * 8 = 31 569
  • 5 262 * 8 = 42 092
  • 7 015 * 8 = 56 123
  • 9 354 * 8 = 74 831
  • 12 472 * 8 = 99 775

It turns out that we reach the amount of 100K in 16 full pot turns, or 96 stakes, which is well within the planned distance, on its edge. It is clear that in practice odds can lag a little behind or be ahead. Also there may be rounds, where passability will be 3 out of 6, which would mean idle turnover and player will still be on his own. There may also be more successful rotations, where a 5 or even a 6 out of 6 may be achieved. The main thing to try not to fall below 50% for a round, because 1 or 2 of 6 will throw a player back, and 6 losses in one round, and even zero the bank. But as long as you are going to reach such an ambitious goal, you must be consistent and not bet on nothing, and choose only the most reliable events. The fact that we need very little, 6 of them for one cycle, gives us additional motivation for better analysis and elimination.

Game strategy

betting strategy

We have dealt with the financial scheme. Now let’s go down to the level of game strategy. What do we mean by an average odds of 2.00 per match? The point is that the high risks of the algorithm itself require some compensators. One of them will be the distribution of the amount per match between several bets within it. The terms of the bets will be close, not contradicting each other, but beating different sides of the prediction. This will help avoid losing the whole amount if the game scenario does not fully justify the prediction.

For example, a classic match choice of a relative favourite playing at home. A simple P1 victory is bet within the range of 1.70-2.10. A certain amount of money is allocated for the match, according to the above strategy. A 50% stake of this amount is put on P1. Another 25% is put on Forum 1 (-1). For which the quotes will be in the region of 2.25-2.75. The remaining 25% wager on individual home total more than 1.5 goals. We can give anywhere from 1.80 to 2.10 for this.

If the score is 2-0, 3-0, 3-1 and so on, with a difference of 2 or more goals, all three components will win. The final odds played will go well over two.

If the score is 2-1, a simple win and ITB(1.5) will win, and the minus handicap will come with a return. All the same, the total will be a plus of almost +50% or more of the total bet.

For example, $50 bet on P1, $25 on F1(-1), and $25 on ITB(1.5). That works out to:

  • (50 * 1.70) + (25 * 1.80) + (25 * 1.00) = 155

If the score will be 2:2, 3:3, 2:3, i.e. the selected team will score the required number of goals, but will not win, we will make up a part of the loss by entering on ITB(1.5) at least.

25 * 1.80 = 45

If you just bet on P1, as beginners usually do, you would lose everything, but half of it is saved.

If the score is 1-0, then a win is played, a handicap is returned, but the individual total is lost.

(50 * 1.70) + (25 * 1.00) = 110

We will be on our own and even in a small plus

betting

If the scores are 0:0, 1:1, 0:1, 0:2 and so on, all three parts will lose. But with this kind of distribution we insure ourselves as much as possible.

Depending on the particular team and its style of play, the distribution can be in other ratios. For example, 1-0 is seen as an extremely unlikely scenario, but a goal exchange, and say 2-2 is feared more. In that case, it might be sensible to divide the sum differently: 50% take ITB(1.5), and divide it between P1 and F1(-1) with 25% each. Known flexibility, backed up by experience, can make the difference.

By analogy, it is possible to divide the allocated amount between other markets based on the prediction vector. For example, it might be about the hidden favourite. If the odds are equally stacked, the forecaster expects one team not to lose and goals from the other. A Forfeit (0) and ITB(1) on this team might be priced between 1.70 and 2.50. It is between these bets that the allocated amount is divided.

Total

You can act in a similar way with the totals. For example, expecting a goal match half of the sum to bet on TB(2.5), and the other half on “both score – yes”. Alternatively, you can divide parts of the amount also on TB(3) or a combination of “OZ + TB”.